One of my favorite futures bets is quarterback passing yards. Essentially, who is going to be throwing the ball all over like a gunslinger? You need to factor in attempts, receiving core and most importantly, health. Many QBs go down and looking at this year’s favorites that scares the hell out of me. As with many futures bets you want to bet value based on the odds. There is very little reason to pick a quarterback with 3-1 odds unless you are certain they are going to lead. BTW if you are certain, please do let us know your pick! I have no objections to making large amounts of money on sure bets.
Let’s take a look at this year’s odds for passing yards and bet $100 across a few “value” bets to maximize winnings and most importantly, fun.
Peyton Manning (DEN) 3-1
Drew Brees (NO) 4-1
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 6-1
I have a big problem plopping down any dollars on Manning and Brees. If I could play the “field” against these two, I would. Picking Rodgers is a little better, but his offensive line is inconsistent at best and the Packers really want to establish a running attack. Given this, 6-1 isn’t enticing to me.
Matthew Stafford (DET) 7-1
I really like Stafford; however, these odds are way too low. At 50-1 I would happily put down $10, but at 7-1, no thank you.
MIDDLE OF THE PACK CONSIDERATIONS
Here is where I typically find my value picks with the group ready to reach the next level, but not getting any respect. That is not the case heading into this season. Quarterbacks with 100-1 odds to win the passing title include Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford and Russell Wilson. It could be 1000-1 and I wouldn’t place a dollar on this group.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 150-1
I think I’ve made it clear that I believe people in Pittsburgh overrate Roethlisberger, but I like him at 150-1 odds. He could win, right? At least I know the people of Steeler nation believe.
BET $20 to win $3,000
Andy Dalton (CIN) 150-1
I don’t understand how Dalton is not in the 100-1 or better group. Last year he was 7th. All it takes is a couple injuries to the top (also old) favorites and Dalton could be in the mix.
BET $20 to win $3,000
SUPER LONG SHOTS
Cam Newton (CAR) 200-1
I don’t like to make a habit out of selecting super long shots, but Newton is my pick. Last year he only had 292 attempts and that (provided he stays healthy) is going to increase and could push his total yardage greater than 4K, putting him in the top ten and the possibility of leading the league. Again, I don’t understand how his odds are double someone such as Bradford, but that is why Newton is such a great value pick to me.
BET $60 to win $12,000